Forum: What Are Your Predictions For Next Tuesday’s Elections?

Every week on Monday morning , the Council and invited guests weigh in at the Watcher’s Forum, short takes on a major issue of the day. This week’s question:What Are Your Predictions For Next Tuesday’s Elections?

The Noisy Room: My prediction is still that Romney/Ryan will win by a landslide. Given the fact that the polls show them tied (and I don’t believe the polls), the fact that the polls are heavily skewed in favor of Obama and they still show a tie (they are weighted in the swing states by a 6 to 8 point spread for Democrats) and the ‘enthusiasm’ factor thrown in (which shows 10s of thousands showing up for Romney and only 10s of hundreds or less showing up for Obama), I think Romney will win decisively.

At the moment, depending on which polls you hear, the “conventional wisdom” is once again tilted in favor of the Democratic candidate, despite a startling discrepancy between the attendance at rallies for the opposing candidates. Romney and Ryan are getting mobbed, while Obama can’t seem to fill an auditorium. Photos taken of Romney and Ryan events invariably show long shots of huge crowds (e.g. the monster rally in Colorado), while the Obama events all seem to consist of close-in shots or “cropped” crowd shots.

It seems that the Press and polls paint a substantially different picture from that which is conveyed by eyewitness accounts and actual visuals.

Remember, Obama in 2008 was predicted to win by double digits and it came down to single digits. Still a trouncing, but not as exaggerated as they claimed. Also remember in the Senate in 2010, the spread was somewhere in the 5 to 8 point spread and it was doom, doom, doom for Conservatives until the election itself. When the political dust settled, Conservatives and Tea Party won big.

On top of this, recent events have not cast Obama’s administration in a good light. The Benghazi debacle continues to see air time in the alternative media and on Fox, leading to more recent coverage in left-leaning media and more mainstream outlets attempting to frame the disaster as a failure either of the State Department or the CIA. While that kind of “context casting” may seem to work, what leaks out around it is the unavoidable conclusion that somehow this still traces back to the president; even if he, himself, didn’t screw this up, he hired the people who did. Add to this the happening-right-now events following not-really-a-hurricane Sandy, and the federal government is seen, once again, as inept and feckless. While the media majority still insulates the Administration from seeming to bear any responsibility for the blundering, inadequate supplies, and rising death toll, there will be observers who can’t help but recall the savage lashing given the Bush Administration during the Katrina aftermath for essentially the same results.

These most recent events may not cost Obama the EC votes from New Jersey and New York, but could well “lighten” the shade of Blue in the final outcome and, more importantly, in areas not far from there — like Pennsylvania and Ohio — could solidify those states for the Red side.

My predictions are this: Romney will win the popular vote by 5%-7.5% and take more than 300 votes in the EC, holding all of the states McCain won in 2008 and adding CO, NV, FL, NC, VA, NH, IA, IN, OH, WI, MI, OR and PA.

The Republicans will also take the Senate majority with somewhere between 51-53 seats. And the Republicans will overwhelmingly retain the House. This prediction is shared by a number of conservatives. And even then, there is a glimmer of hope Romney could pull a Reagan and do a massive sweep.

 Gay Patriot: Had you asked me to forecast the election outcome before Hurricane Sandy hit, I would have forecast a Romney victory similar to that in last week’s Battleground poll, with him winning with a popular vote margin of about 52-47.

Romney had the momentum before the Hurricane devastated the Jersey Shore and left much of suburban New York without power. This seems to have helped burnish Obama’s image as a leader.

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