IIt may be time to question the polls that Real Clear Politics include in their averages. Some of these polls are completely unrealistic in my opinion. the latest poll by Reuters/IPSOS is a perfect example. The outfit released a poll today (10/12/2016) showing Hillary Clinton with a 7 point lead over Donald Trump. Theit last poll prior to today was released on 10/5/2016 and showed Clinton with a 6 point lead over Donald Trump. (Note: Both polls include 3rd party candidates Stein and Johnson.)
So looking at these two most recent polls, Clinton was +6 on 10/5 (42% to 36%) and is now +7 over Trump a week later (44% to 37%). And what a tumultuous week it was with the release of a 2005 tape that had Trump using some locker room language and then the debate Sunday night where fireworks flew and most saw the debate as a clear Trump victory.
So the conclusion one might draw from these two polls is that the tapes, obviously a help to Clinton and the debate, a plus for Trump almost canceled each other out. Clinton gained a point.
But wait! Take a look at the internal numbers behind the polls. And for reference, according to the Roper Center at Cornell University, in 2012 38% of the voters were Democrats and 32% were Republicans. 29% were Independents. And according to the same report, 50% of the Independents voted for Romney and 45% for Obama.