With just under a week to go until the election, I think it’s a good time to assess where we are and what to expect.
Caveat: This analysis does not figure in possible unexpected ‘black swan’ events! As we’ve seen, literally anything can happen!
As I and others predicted, as we get closer to election day the public polling were going to tighten up considerably. This is no accident. The stuff showing Hillary Clinton 12 points plus ahead was always bogus and a political tactic to try and dampen enthusiasm and turnout for Trump. Having seen the rabid crowds Trump was drawing at his rallies and even more important, hearing what people were actually saying on the street it was obvious that tried and true tactic wasn’t working this time out.
At this point the media commissioned public polls are merely trying to retain a scrap of credibility for next time by reflecting far more accurate numbers. It’s interesting that polls like the L.A Times/USC and Investor’s Business Daily that always showed Clinton and Trump fairly close together and even showed Trump ahead at times. They haven’t changed anything like the degree of most of the others to show this ‘tightening’ effect.I’ll mention some polling in this analysis just for giggles. but here’s an excellent rule to follow this week:
Bottom line, ignore the polls, and that especially applies to exit polls and calls by the networks on Election Day.
Rest assured they will be skewed, both deliberately and simply because a lot of people will have very good reasons to keep their choice private given the bullying Hillary’s supporters exhibit at every opportunity. Even putting a Trump sticker on your car is asking it to be vandalized and maybe worse. It’s how the Left operates.
Believe nothing in terms of results until it’s all over. And to be frank, perhaps not even then...
So. who’s going to win?